Terms of Reference for an analytical research on economic costs of energy transition in Ukraine

Solar panels in the field

Heinrich Boell Stiftung, Kyiv Office — Ukraine seeks a Contractor for an analytical research on economic costs of energy transition in Ukraine. Read the full Terms of Reference here.

The Heinrich Boll Foundation is a non-governmental, resource-based organization that promotes a democratic agenda and changes public discourse with a view to green democratic development. The Foundation is part of the Green Political Movement of Germany and the EU. Since 2017 one of the key priorities of the Foundation’s work in Ukraine is to promote just energy transition from fossil and nuclear energy to renewable energy sources towards socio-ecological transformation.

Ukraine’s power sector is going through a crisis. After an opening of a liberalized market in July 2019, the market power of incumbent players, including mostly privately-owned coal generation, has not been addressed. The market integration of renewable energy is limited by inefficiencies in the market design. The stability of the RES sector is threatened by a set of political decisions that lead to significant debts accumulated and not much desire to keep investments flowing into renewables. Most of conversation around renewables in Ukraine boil down to “expensive feed-in tariffs” and excessive financial burden for consumers. However, the hidden costs of fossil-fuel generation are not mentioned or analyzed. Coal sector has been historically a source of corruption, inefficient use of public finance and an instrument to manipulate political decisions in favor of fossil fuel generation.

Ukraine is now facing a social and political dilemma whether to keep the cost low and limit the development of renewables or to create conditions for further electricity market liberalization, invest into the energy transition and phase-out coal. The comprehensive analysis should help politicians and the Ukrainian society to understand the long-term costs and benefits of the energy transition and enhance the dialogue.

Objective of the assignment

The objective of this assignment is to provide macroeconomic analysis of costs and benefits of transitioning the electricity production from coal generation to renewables in Ukraine.

Tasks and scope of work

The scope of works for the contractor envisages the economic modelling based on the methodology, preliminary described in the Annex 1 to the Terms of Reference. The modelling should compare 2 scenarios to show economic costs and benefits for energy transition:

1. Reference scenario;

2. Transition scenario.

The contractor will be supported by the local expert, hired independently by the Foundation, to facilitate the data collection and providing an insight into the Ukrainian energy sector. Based on the above-outlined tasks, and respectively implemented, the contractor is expected to implement next tasks:

1. Prepare a methodology for the economic analysis and approve it with the Client.

2. Collect and verify input data for economic modelling together with the local expert and the Client, in consultations with Ukrainian stakeholders. The basic set of input data for 2 modelling scenarios is formulated by Client in an Annex 1 to this ToR.

3. Provide modelling and communicate intermediate results to Client. Adjust the input data and modelling if necessary.

4. Verify results of the modelling and agree them with the Client.

5. Prepare final report.

6. Participate in public presentation of the results.

The timeline is subject to discussion between the Client and potential Contractor, but the final report with description of results should be provided not later than March 31st 2021. The shorter proposed timeframe of task fulfillment would be an asset for potential Contractor in case of other equal criteria.


Deliverables should include the following:

-          Detailed description of the methodology used for the analysis and modelling (in electronic form);

-          Datasets with inputs used for the analysis and modelling (in electronic form);

-          The final report with the results, in English and/or Ukrainian (in electronic form);

-          The short presentation for the public event, based on the report results (in electronic form);

-          The public event — presentation of the results, together with the Foundation representative and the local expert (online participation, travel to Ukraine is not foreseen due to COVID-19 restrictions).

Read the full Terms of Reference

The proposal from potential Contractor should include a shortly described proposed methodology for the analysis, the estimated timeline and total budget for the assignment. Deadline for the proposal submission is August 31st, 2020. The written proposal should be sent to oksana.aliieva@ua.boell.org. Successful applicant will be informed by September 4th, 2020.